*Recap*

Wow. After last night, the team that will gain the right to draft can't miss prospect Alexis Lafreniere, will be competing in the qualifying round of the altered 24 team playoff. In a dramatic turn of events, the favourites of Ottawa and Detroit were left in the dust, as they will instead pick 3-5 instead of being slated for the top two picks as many predicted.The LA Kings moved into the second spot. The last time they were in that spot, they selected Drew Doughty in 2008.

The real winner of the Draft Lottery is Lafreniere himself, as he will likely get the opportunity to jump right onto a contending team and not go through the typical rebuild a player of his likeness would have been otherwise accustomed to. Some enticing teams now in the sweepstakes for Lafreniere present some interesting options. Lafreniere is a Quebec native and has spent the majority of his career in the QMJHL, so a lottery win for the Montreal Canadiens would be amazing for their lineup, and marketing department. Alexis played junior for Rimouski, the same program that hosted current legend Sidney Crosby. Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back cups not to long ago, but still arent far removed from their great success with the lottery. If they fall out the playoffs early, landing Lafreniere would surely reinvigorate the Penguins goals and give Crosby another elite piece for another potential dynasty. The Oilers also have great success, luck, whatever you want to call it at the lottery table. Coming from this Oilers fan, we don't deserve another one. But as the Oilers are set for a "trap" series against the veteran Chicago Blackhawks, an upset is defintely on the table and could leave the Oilers in a familiar position come draft day...

With an already absurd 2020 campaign attempting to come to an end, why not have a playoff team select a budding star?  

*Original*

With the season already set to continue under vastly different circumstances, the upcoming draft lottery is just another wrinkle in this unusual NHL season. The traditional draft would have taken place by now, but due to COVID-19 the draft process is just beginning.

15 teams will be involved in the draft lottery. The already 7 eliminated teams hold the best odds at getting the top spot, and Ottawa holds 2 picks in the projected top 5 after the Erik Karlsson trade with San Jose in 2018. If a team (currently unassigned picks) in the 8-15 range jumps into the top three, a second phase of the lottery would take place after the qualifying round to decide who gets the pick. According to the NHL website, if each of the three First Phase drawings is won by a bottom-seven team, the Second Phase will not be necessary. The remaining four teams from the bottom seven will be assigned picks No. 4-7 in inverse order of their regular-season points percentage, and picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the qualifier in inverse order of their points percentage.

The draft lottery has been around since 1995, but only since 2013 have all non-playoff teams had a shot at the first overall pick. The best odds for a qualifier team sit at 6.0%, while the front runners are the Detroit Red Wings at 18.5%, while the Senators remain a dark horse with 13.5% from their pick, and 11.5% from the San Jose pick. The Edmonton Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins are two franchises that have benefited tremendously from the lottery, a program that has supplied each organization with their franchise player. The Penguins won a 30 team lottery in 2005 after the lockout season, and emerged victorious with Sidney Crosby to go along with their other recent high picks in Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury. Edmonton picked first overall from 2010 to 2012, having various success with each pick. In 2015 the lottery balls went in the Oiler’s favour again, and they were able to finally draft phenom Connor McDavid to steer their organization back on course.

Alexis Lafreniere is the consensus #1 pick for this years draft, and it is believed he will be able to continue his scoring ways upon entry to the NHL. He was sensational for Canada at the World Juniors this past holiday season, collecting 10 points in 5 games on-route to a gold medal. Lafreniere was born and raised in Quebec, and has played all of his club hockey in province. If the Senators managed to snag the first pick, Lafreniere would no doubt become a fan favorite for the team, and especially their bilingual supporters.

We ran 5 simulations on www.tankathon.com/nhl, a site dedicated to rolling the dice on the different scenarios the lottery could present. Detroit retained the first pick in the first two sims, and Winnipeg made the largest observed jump, moving up 10 spots in #2. Detroit did not pick in the top 2 for the next two sims, instead seeing Chicago move up 7 spots to pick #2. The last simulation resulted in the most traditional and predictable outcome, seeing Ottawa win the draft lottery as well as the 3rd pick, with Detroit sandwiched in between at 2.

It wouldn’t be wise to gamble on these simulations, but crazier things have happened in draft lottery history. The first phase of the NHL draft lottery goes tonight at 6 pm, on TSN.