Saskatchewan continues to tread water as both NAFTA negotiations and the Trans Mountain Pipeline stall, having potential devastating effects on the province’s economy.

In the negotiations regarding NAFTA, the federal government has dug in their heels and has repeatedly said they will not sign unless it is an agreement that is in the best interest of Canada and the Canadian people. Meanwhile, they have an opportunity at their fingertips, and as of last Thursday – own, that would highly benefit the Canadian economy, that has gone through stringent and extensive consultation and still does not have clearance, the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

Both of these proceedings have the potential to boost or devour the Saskatchewan economy. Not only for the labour-force in the oil sector, but the export potential of oil and many other goods and resources produced by Saskatchewan.

Jeremy Harrison, Saskatchewan’s minister of trade and export development, said the following during an interview last week in regards to Saskatchewan and the NAFTA negotiations, “We need to get a deal, this is incredibly important for our economy, which is probably the most export-dependant in the entire country, and we’ve been concerned about a pattern we’ve been seeing – moving backward on market access, moving backward on trade access, not moving forward,” he said while referencing examples of Saskatchewan’s international market access shrinking.

According to the government of Saskatchewan, roughly 70 per cent of what is produced in the province is exported to countries around the world, with the United States being Saskatchewan’s top market at $16 billion, which is an increase of 33 per cent in the last decade. The provinces leading exports are oil claiming 24 per cent, potash with 17 per cent, canola seed 12 per cent and wheat with 11 per cent.

Although the federal government reiterates that they are optimistic and things are moving in the right direction, many officials have stated that when you are left out of negotiations of this magnitude, it’s not a good position to have, especially when the other two players have come to agreements, thus leaving Canada with less than ideal leveraging opportunities.

Furthermore, as stated above, oil is the number one export of our province, the Trans Mountain Pipeline that was slated to move forward has once again, come to a screeching halt in the wake of a flawed review of the expansion proposal by the National Energy Board (NAB).

Although the pipeline will be tripling the capacity to move oil from Alberta to a port in British Columbia, Saskatchewan Premier, Scott Moe, said Saskatchewan’s economic potential stands to gain from the expansion going forward as well. He stated that oil from Saskatchewan sells at a discount in North America because it doesn’t have access to markets outside of the US., which creates a differential in price between what the province makes and what it could be making.

Moe went on to tell reporters at a press conference last Thursday, “A delay of this project in any way to the province of Saskatchewan ultimately means that we will go a longer period of time with the large oil differential that we experience,” which could be in the range of $2 billion per year.

The expansion project came to a stand still after the Federal Court of Appeal announced the NAB did not properly consult with First Nations groups during the review and also did not include the consideration of the use of tankers that would be needed on Canada’s west coast.

No timeline has been stated, however it was reported that the delay could be as long as 18 to 24 months while the NAB compiles a new report and the federal government holds more consultations on the expansion. However, Federal Finance Minister, Bill Morneau, said the government will move forward with the project, this after the purchase offer by the government to Kinder Morgan to buy the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline was approved by the company Thursday morning, after the court released their decision, a purchase agreement that has no back-out option.

In response the federal court’s decision, Moe stated an appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada should be launched “at the first opportunity,” and also encouraged the federal government to explore legislative options to ensure the start of construction on the pipeline.

In both regards, we are largely at the helm of the federal government and will have to wait to see what decisions are made and how, we as a province, will proceed.